A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
